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Du r ing the past week the stock market has shown numerous signs that the seven-month rall y , which has carried shares to not only deeply overbought territory but to their highest valuations in years as well, is getting tired. \n \nHeading into t r ading this week, the S&P 500 was 20 percent above its 200-da y moving average. This is a rather rare occurrence. For instance, even at the height of the tech bubble in 2000 we didn’t reach such an overextended point. In fact, during the Post War period the only occasions we moved up so far, so fast was briefly in 1975, 1982 and again in 1983.\n \nStocks p r omptl y fell sharply after reaching that lofty level in 1975, by 1982 and 1983 shares traded sideways for a time, consolidating their gains. But what was striking about these past occurrences was that valuations were so much lower than they are today, with trailing P/Es in the in 10 to 13 region, as compared to an off the scale reading of more than 140 for the S&P today! \n\nEven using the S&P Indust r ials as a benchmark (thereb y excluding the troubled financials) the P/E right now is 32.5. Likewise, even using the most optimistic estimate of forward earnings stocks are quite dear. Using other benchmarks, like dividend yields or price to sales, the bull case for stocks here falls short. \n \nLooking at the stock cha r ts also sends up a couple of caution flags. The S&P 500 Depositar y Receipts (SPY) ETFble top formation in the process. Finall and , we 'r and seeing the beginnings of dramatic underperformance of small caps relative to blue chips. The little guys Had Been Leading the charge by a wide margin heading Into Fairly last week's trading. But by week's end, the Russell 2000 Index of small fry off Nearly WAS 2.5 PERCENT, Where The venerable Dow Industrials Were off by less Than a quarter of a Percentage Point. Small stocks led on the way up and they'll likely spearhead a major decline, So There Recent Showing of the small fry is cause for concern '. The U.S. dolla r , Which Had Become deepl and oversold, has staged a modest recovery in the Last Few Days. That has put pressure on commodities, Including oil andgold. This Could run a bit further, But we see it as A Buying Opportunity.